Russian oil production could fall by 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in early 2023 after the European Union imposed a ban on maritime transport imports from Monday, two sources of major Russian producers said.

The estimate is on the low end of market analysts’ projections of the combined impact of the ban and a proposed price cap on Russian oil, although the sources said the true level would depend on several factors that have yet to be clarified.

They asked for anonymity to discuss sensitive markets…