Russia’s declaration of partial mobilization and plans to hold referendums on Russia’s accession in the occupied territories of Ukraine have increased the risk that Western countries will impose tougher sanctions.

“The mobilization would likely lead to even greater Western unity on oil-sector sanctions and increase the risk of tougher action if crude prices soften in the coming months,” said Paul Sheldon, chief geopolitics adviser at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

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